NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool Tips: Best Picks and Strategies to Stay Alive (2024)

Survivor pools are tricky because there's no such thing as a guaranteed victory in the NFL. Anyone who picked the Dallas Cowboys to win in Week 3 can attest to that.

Dallas came in as a double-digit favorite over the lowly Cardinals. Arizona had blown leads to the Washington Commanders and New York Giants, while the Cowboys had dominated their opponents.

Yet, the Cardinals were the ones exiting with a double-digit win on Sunday, thanks to poor defensive play and a sloppy overall performance (13 penalties) by Dallas. You can bet that the Cowboys busted a lot of survivor pools in Week 3.

Who can fans trust in Week 4? We'll examine a couple of top picks, using the latest odds as a guideline, and dive into some survivor strategies for the upcoming slate.

Since you only have to pick one winner each week in a survivor pool, it's smart to start with the locks early in the season. You can only pick a team once, of course, but there's no reason to get cute and bust out early.

We're still learning which teams are good, great or likely to be vying for the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft. The Chicago Bears, who have appeared lost on both sides of the ball, fall firmly into that last category.

There will be points this season where simply picking against Chicago could be a viable survivor strategy. However, against the struggling Denver Broncos this week is not that point.

Games involving two bad teams should be avoided until no options are remaining—a scenario you shouldn't face until at least November. It's also wise to avoid teams with serious injury concerns or offensive uncertainty.

The Cleveland Browns, for example, rolled the Tennessee Titans in Week 3 despite losing star running back Nick Chubb to a torn MCL the previous Monday. They should probably be 3-0, but Deshaun Watson's mistakes handed Cleveland a loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3.

The defense will carry the Browns to a lot of wins this season, but it's hard to trust Watson in a divisional game against an aggressive Baltimore Ravens defense.

It's even harder to trust New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston, who is likely to start in place of Derek Carr (AC joint sprain) in their NFC South showdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers—a game that could go either way.

Winston led New Orleans to zero points on Sunday after replacing the injured Carr in the lineup against the Green Bay Packers.

The Los Angeles Chargers versus Las Vegas Raiders game is another divisional matchup that should be avoided. The Chargers defense has not looked good, but the Raiders offense has looked even worse.

However, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is in the concussion protocol and could give way to Aidan O'Connell against L.A. If the rookie (or journeyman Brian Hoyer) avoids the miscues that have plagued Garoppolo (six interceptions), the Raiders could pull off the Week 4 upset.

While several games should be ignored for survivor pools this week, there are a couple that feel like safe picks.

The San Francisco 49ers are the heaviest favorites of the week, giving 14 points to the Cardinals. If you haven't picked the Niners this season, we'd recommend saving them for later in the year.

San Francisco has played consistently well enough to be picked against virtually any opponent.

The Kansas City Chiefs haven't been as consistent. They looked great against lowly Chicago in Week 3 but struggled offensively in each of their first two games.

However, Kansas City, which is a 9.5-point favorite over the New York Jets, should get the win this week.

The Jets have a tremendous defense that will make the Chiefs earn the victory. However, Zach Wilson and the New York offense have been laughable. The quarterback has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in his two starts, while the Jets have scored just 10 points in each of his starts.

There's a good chance New York fails to top 10 points against a Chiefs defense ranked fourth in points allowed.

Patrick Mahomes is starting to develop a rapport with the likes of Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce appears to be fully recovered from the knee injury that kept him out of Week 1. With a strong rushing attack headed by Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City should put enough points on the board to win comfortably.

This is a good week to pick the Chiefs if you haven't already. Their Week 6 matchup with the Broncos is another game to circle.

If you'd prefer to save Kansas City for their matchup with a bafflingly bad Broncos defense, the Philadelphia Eagles stand out as a smart Week 4 choice.

They are beginning to find their groove offensively and have scored at least 25 points in every contest this season. Philly is an eight-point favorite over the Commanders, who have averaged just 19.3 points per game.

This won't be a track meet, though, as both the Eagles and Commanders have quality defenses. In what should be a tough, physical divisional battle, fans should trust Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia offense much more than Sam Howell and the Commanders.

Howell looked like a capable starting quarterback over the first two weeks, but he was flustered and mistake-prone against the Buffalo Bills in Week 4. He has been done no favors by a suspect offensive line that surrendered nine sacks in Week 3 alone.

Against the Bills, the 23-year-old was consistently under pressure, and he threw four interceptions as a result.

The Eagles have a tremendous pass rush that will exploit a Washington line that has given up 19 sacks already this season. It's hard to see Howell getting much going against Philadelphia's front, and he could be in store for another multiple-turnover game.

This is a very favorable matchup for Philadelphia, as is next week's game against the Los Angeles Rams—a team that surrendered six sacks on Monday night.

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