It’s Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season, and we now have a three-week sample size to help gather trends and patterns to make our Survivor pool picks for this week. In Week 3, we got a couple of upsets, most notably the Cowboys laying an egg against the Cardinals and the Texans upsetting the Jaguars. Maybe we’re not using the Cardinals too much here, as they’ve been pretty competitive so far this season. Except they play the 49ers in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
We will help you get to the promised land one week at a time with our picks, but in case you’re not familiar with Survivor pools, here’s a quick rundown:
Pick a team that wins in each NFL week. Typically, you choose a team just once, so each selection is incredibly important. Some survivor pools have double-elimination so that you can slip up and still be in the running. Make sure you’re checking out ourweekly matchup previews and ourSurvivor League Strategy in theFantasy Alarm Draft Guide as guides toward picking the best winners for each week and developing a strategy. Let’s dive right in with Week 4’s picks!
2023 Survival Pool Picks Record
Week 3: 3-2 (.600)
Overall: 11-4 (.733)
NFL Week 4 DraftKings Odds, Implied Totals, Spreads, and Over/Under
*All lines current as of 3:00 ET, 9/28/23, courtesy ofVegas Insider*
NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks
San Francisco 49ers
If there’s one team not to be scared about, it might just be the 49ers, who had to have seen what the Cowboys did (or didn’t do) against the Cardinals and know that anything can happen in an NFC West matchup. San Francisco is the largest favorite in Week 4 and also holds the largest implied point total at 29, and Arizona holds the smallest implied point total at 15.
To say this would be a historic upset if the Cardinals could pull this off is an understatement. For context, no team has won back-to-back games as a double-digit underdog since the 1995 Indianapolis Colts.
Kansas City Chiefs
I mean, Taylor Swift is going to be at this game on Sunday Night against the Jets, so it’s hard NOT to play the Chiefs here. The Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites this week against the moribund Jets, who are free-falling with head coach hitching his wagon to the Zach Wilson trainwreck.n The Jets may have a robust defense, but they will need to score actual, real points in an NFL game and keep up with Patrick Mahomes — a Herculean effort.
If I have already used the 49ers, I’m using the Chiefs this week. “I’ve got a blank space, baby, and I’ll write your name.”
Minnesota Vikings
Now, to actual analysis. Yes. An 0-3 team I’m touting this week. They’re playing the Panthers in Carolina, but are slated to have Bryce Young back under center instead of Andy Dalton. The same Dalton who actually made their offense function in Week 3 in Seattle. Young has looked like a rookie so far, and not in a good way, with a less than 60% completion percentage, two interceptions and just 4.2 yards per attempt.
On the other hand, the Vikings have moved the ball proficiently and have a 25.5 implied point total on the road as a 0-3 team. Bettors clearly don’t think this team is a bad team; they’ve lost by six points or less in all three games. The Panthers haven’t stopped much on defense either, so this is one of those games where we have to sort out the law of averages and go with the better team regardless of what the standings say.
Other NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool Options
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers may have just lost Mike Williams for the season, but they certainly have enough offensive firepower to get through the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4 at home. The Raiders haven’t been able to stop anybody and have been unable to score much despite some gaudy stats from Davante Adams. Las Vegas allows the ninth-most points scored to opposing offenses, and they have scored the fourth-fewest points this season.
Add to that Jimmy Garoppolo in concussion protocol? The Chargers are currently 5.5-point favorites, but that total could balloon if Garoppolo doesn’t make it out of concussion protocol, and it’s either Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell under center. Yikes. I’m taking the Chargers here as a contrarian play.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are another solid play against the Commanders at home. It doesn’t seem contrarian on the surface; the Eagles are 8.5-point favorites against the Commanders. Per ESPN, the Eagles have an 80% win probability, and this is probably the juiciest matchup they’ll have all season outside of a matchup in New York vs. the Jets in Week 6. Add on an offense finding their footing with Sam Howell under center and also coming off of a game where he just threw four interceptions?! Sign me up here if you don’t want to use the 49ers or Chiefs.
